By United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment

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On the other hand, it might contribute to an industrial base for other activities, such as commercial development of space. Total costs. The total system costs for BMD will remain difficult to predict for some time. S. military needs. For example, a BMD deployment which led to negotiation of deep reductions in offensive forces would eventually allow shifting expenditures away from strategic offenses. In the short run, however, until the cost-exchange ratios in the offense-defense competition on both sides became clear, increased expenditures might be required to maintain offensive forces on a par with those of the Soviet Union.

The interplay of defenses, countermeasures, and counter-countermeasures cannot be discussed in detail, because many concepts are classified. But the chapter does attempt to give an idea of the nature of the problem. Because most of these technologies are in a relatively undeveloped state, Congress will not likely be faced in the near future with full-scale BMD deployment decisions. Rather, it will have to judge how public money should be spent on BMD research in the next few years. Chapter 8 describes an imaginary design for a multi-layered BMD system.

50 The Current Ballistic Missile Defense Debate. . . , ....... . . . . 55 Strategic Nuclear Forces: The ICBM Vulnerability Issue . . . . . . . 55 Technological Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Soviet BMD Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , ........ 59 Political Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 What is New? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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